USDA Reports Summary

Tue. Jun 30, 2015 11:17 AM

By Katie Micik
DTN Markets Editor

WASHINGTON (DTN) -- Corn and soybean stocks as of June 1 came in near pre-report estimates, at 4.45 billion bushels and 625 million bushels, respectively.

USDA also expects record soybean acreage at 85.14 million acres, up from March's Prospective Plantings estimate of 84.6 ma. Corn acreage, at 88.9 ma, declined slightly from USDA's previous estimate of 89.2 ma.

Sorghum stocks came in below the range of pre-report expectations while acreage came in above the range of expectations.

For USDA's full Acreage and quarterly Grain Stocks reports, visit: http://www.nass.usda.gov/…

CORN

Corn ending stocks as of June 1 came in at 4.45 billion bushels, up 15% from the year prior. Of the total, 2.28 billion bushels are held on-farm while 2.17 bb are in commercial storage. The March-to-May disappearance is 3.3 bb, an increase from last year's 3.16 bb.

Corn planted acreage declined 2% from 2014 and is estimated at 88.9 ma, the lowest acreage figure since 2010. USDA anticipates that farmers harvest 81.1 ma for grain. Planted acreage was steady or lower across most of the Corn Belt with the exception of Wisconsin, which increased plantings compared to 2014.

Farmers that responded to USDA's surveys said that 98% of the crop had been planted.

SOYBEANS

Soybean stocks as of June 1 came in at 625 mb, toward the low end of pre-report estimates. Farmers held 246 mb on-farm, while off-farm stocks came in at 379 mb. Disappearance from March to May totaled 701 mb, up 19% from the year prior.

USDA estimates that farmers planted 85.1 ma to soybeans, which is 2% higher than last year and a new record. USDA expects farmers will harvest 84.4 million acres.

Acreage is higher or unchanged in 20 of the 31 major producing states with increased of 200,000 acres or more in Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota and Tennessee.

In USDA's summary of crop conditions, it acknowledged that wet weather had slowed planting progress as of June 1, noting that Kansas was 42 percentage points behind the five-year average planting pace and that Missouri was 34 percentage points behind.

Of 2015 soybean acreage, 94% of it was planted to herbicide resistance seed varieties, USDA said.

SORGHUM

Sorghum stocks as of June 1 came in 33 mb, below the range of pre-report expectations. Farmers held 2.9 mb bushels in on-farm storage and 30.3 mb in off-farm locations. Disappearance from March to May was 86 mb.

A majority of the remaining sorghum stocks is located in Kansas, which has 18.4 mb in storage.

As for acreage, farmers planted 8.84 ma, nearly 1 million acres more than USDA forecast in March. That's up 24% from 2014 with Kansas and Texas accounting for 72% of total acreage.

WHEAT

Old-crop wheat stocks in all positions on June 1 came in at 753 mb, up 28% from a year ago and toward the higher end of pre-report estimates. On-farm stocks are estimated at 155 mb while off-farm stocks are at 597 mb. March to May disappearance is 388 mb, down 17% from a year earlier.

USDA said farmers planted wheat on 56.08 ma in 2015. Winter wheat was planted on 40.6 ma, with 29.6 ma of hard red winter and 7.61 ma of soft red winter. Spring wheat was planted on 13.5 ma and durum on 1.95 ma.

ANALYSIS

In its quarterly Grain Stocks report, USDA said that corn stocks in all positions on June 1 totaled 4.45 billion bushels, less than expected, said DTN Analyst Todd Hultman. Soybean stocks on June 1 totaled 625 million bushels, less than expected. USDA said that wheat stocks on June 1 totaled 753 million bushels, which was more than expected.

"USDA's Grain Stocks estimates were bullish for corn and soybeans, but bearish for wheat," Hultman said.

In its Acreage report, USDA estimated that 88.9 million acres of corn will be planted in 2015, a little less than the pre-report estimate of 89.2 million acres and down 2% from a year ago, Hultman said. Planted soybean acres were estimated at a record-high 85.1 million, slightly below the pre-report estimate of 85.2 million acres and up 2% from a year ago. USDA estimated planted wheat acres at 56.1 million, more than expected while spring wheat acres were pegged at 13.5 million acres, slightly more than expected.

"USDA's acreage estimates are slightly bullish for new-crop corn, neutral for new-crop soybeans and slightly bearish for wheat," Hultman said.

QUARTERLY STOCKS (billion bushels)
6/1/15 Average High Low 3/1/15 6/1/14
Corn 4.447 4.512 4.640 4.000 7.745 3.852
Soybeans 0.625 0.674 0.735 0.604 1.334 0.405
Wheat 0.753 0.713 0.765 0.610 1.124 0.590
Grain Sorghum 0.033 0.039 0.045 0.034 0.119 0.092
ACREAGE (million acres) USDA USDA
6/30/15 Average High Low 3/31/15 Final 2014
Corn 88.90 89.17 91.70 88.50 89.20 90.60
Soybeans 85.14 85.19 86.30 83.80 84.64 83.70
All Wheat 56.08 55.65 56.80 54.80 55.37 56.82
All Winter Wheat 40.62 40.80 42.00 40.50 40.75 42.40
Spring 13.51 13.11 13.50 12.70 12.97 13.03
Durum 1.95 1.73 1.90 1.50 1.65 1.40
Grain Sorghum 8.84 7.91 8.11 7.69 7.90 7.14

(AG)

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